The Masters is the one golf tournament that even people who do not watch golf watch. The azaleas, the patrons, the green jacket, Amen Corner — it has its own mythology. We have done zero statistical analysis and have extremely confident predictions.
Rory McIlroy has been due to win the Masters for about a decade. He has finished second twice and has otherwise displayed a remarkable ability to self-destruct on Sunday afternoon at Augusta specifically. He is absolutely going to win it this year. Or he will lead through 54 holes and then three-putt the 16th and we will all have to watch him do a press conference about what went wrong. One of those two things will happen.
“Scottie Scheffler is the world number one and has been playing golf at a level that makes normal professional golfers feel bad about themselves. He won it in 2022. He should be the...”
Scottie Scheffler is the world number one and has been playing golf at a level that makes normal professional golfers feel bad about themselves. He won it in 2022. He should be the favorite. He is the favorite. But picking the favorite at the Masters is for people who do not understand what makes the Masters compelling.
Jon Rahm won it in 2023 and is now on LIV Golf which means he is either completely unbothered and in great form or he has been playing in front of smaller crowds and has lost his competitive edge entirely. Nobody knows which one it is.
Brooks Koepka is the guy who shows up for the majors specifically. Regular PGA Tour events, he is fine. Majors, he transforms into a different person. He has five majors. He is not to be dismissed.
Tiger Woods will not win the Masters. We say this with love and with full recognition that he has won it five times and once did things at Augusta that made people reconsider what was possible. He will not win it this year. He might make the cut. We will watch every single shot anyway.
The Masters starts April 10. Clear your Sunday afternoon.